How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Varhaug, at 40.5%. The other outcomes represent 59.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.5% · Draw: 24% · Away win: 40.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Våg 1444; Varhaug 1519. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
3. Division - Girone 4 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Våg
Elo 1444
4
-
1
Varhaug
Elo 1519
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-76
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Våg1444
Varhaug1519
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Våg
0Draws
0Varhaug
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
24%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
37%
Away
35%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.