How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Finland, at 42.9%. The other outcomes represent 57.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.9% · Draw: 28% · Away win: 29.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Finland 1482; Albania 1523. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Finland
Elo 1482
2
-
1
Albania
Elo 1523
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-41
Elo rating comparison
Finland1482
Albania1523
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Finland
—Draws
—Albania
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
28%
Away
29%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
45%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.