How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Pobeda, at 50.9%. The other outcomes represent 49.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 28.1% · Draw: 21% · Away win: 50.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Angust Nazran 1350; Pobeda 1523. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Second League - Group 1 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
Angust Nazran
Elo 1350
1
-
0
Pobeda
Elo 1523
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-173
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Angust Nazran1350
Pobeda1523
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Angust Nazran
0Draws
0Pobeda
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
21%
Away
51%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
19%
Draw
47%
Away
34%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.