How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Siarka Tarnobrzeg, at 48.9%. The other outcomes represent 51.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.9% · Draw: 21.5% · Away win: 29.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1543; Korona Kielce II 1522. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Elo 1543
1
-
2
Korona Kielce II
Elo 1522
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+21
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1543
Korona Kielce II1522
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0Draws
0Korona Kielce II
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
Draw
21%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
Draw
39%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.