How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Maritsa Plovdiv, at 39.4%. The other outcomes represent 60.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.2% · Draw: 22.4% · Away win: 39.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Dimitrovgrad 1379; Maritsa Plovdiv 1537. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Third League - Southeast · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Dimitrovgrad
Elo 1379
0
-
0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Elo 1537
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
-158
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Dimitrovgrad1379
Maritsa Plovdiv1537
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Dimitrovgrad
0Draws
2Maritsa Plovdiv
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
Draw
22%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
30%
Draw
36%
Away
35%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.