How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Maritsa Milevo, at 57.3%. The other outcomes represent 42.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 57.3% · Draw: 19.2% · Away win: 23.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Maritsa Milevo 1637; Sozopol 1528. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Third League - Southeast · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Maritsa Milevo
Elo 1637
4
-
2
Sozopol
Elo 1528
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
+109
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Maritsa Milevo1637
Sozopol1528
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Maritsa Milevo
2Draws
0Sozopol
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
CORRECT
Home
57%
Draw
19%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
38%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.