How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Purmersteijn, at 39.2%. The other outcomes represent 60.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.2% · Draw: 22.3% · Away win: 38.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Purmersteijn 1509; Harkemase Boys 1612. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Derde Divisie · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Purmersteijn
Elo 1509
4
-
2
Harkemase Boys
Elo 1612
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-102
Elo rating comparison
Purmersteijn1509
Harkemase Boys1612
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Purmersteijn
—Draws
—Harkemase Boys
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
Draw
22%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
39%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.