How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Devnya 2005, at 42.9%. The other outcomes represent 57.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.9% · Draw: 17.7% · Away win: 39.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Devnya 2005 1450; Ustrem Donchevo 1404. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Third League - Northeast · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Devnya 2005
Elo 1450
2
-
1
Ustrem Donchevo
Elo 1404
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+46
Elo rating comparison
Devnya 20051450
Ustrem Donchevo1404
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Devnya 2005
—Draws
—Ustrem Donchevo
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
18%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
34% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
32%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.