How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Septemvri Tervel, at 78.5%. The other outcomes represent 21.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 78.5% · Draw: 15.1% · Away win: 6.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Septemvri Tervel 1780; Septemvri Dragoevo 1490. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Third League - Northeast · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Septemvri Tervel
Elo 1780
3
-
0
Septemvri Dragoevo
Elo 1490
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+290
Elo rating comparison
Septemvri Tervel1780
Septemvri Dragoevo1490
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Septemvri Tervel
—Draws
—Septemvri Dragoevo
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
78% conf.
CORRECT
Home
78%
Draw
15%
Away
6%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
95% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
5%
No
95%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
100%
No
0%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
58%
Draw
32%
Away
9%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.