How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Aigle Noir, at 70.6%. The other outcomes represent 29.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 70.6% · Draw: 17.2% · Away win: 12.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aigle Noir 1791; Ngozi City 1518. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue A · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Aigle Noir
Elo 1791
2
-
1
Ngozi City
Elo 1518
FT
Home Form (5)
0W
4D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+273
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Aigle Noir1791
Ngozi City1518
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Aigle Noir
0Draws
0Ngozi City
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
CORRECT
Home
71%
Draw
17%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
Home
52%
Draw
36%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.