How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Jarosław, at 51.4%. The other outcomes represent 48.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 51.4% · Draw: 21.3% · Away win: 27.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Jarosław 1567; Naprzód 1538. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:30
Jarosław
Elo 1567
1
-
3
Naprzód
Elo 1538
FT
HT 1-3
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+29
Elo rating comparison
Jarosław1567
Naprzód1538
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Jarosław
—Draws
—Naprzód
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
51%
Draw
21%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
Draw
35%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.