How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Airbus UK, at 65.4%. The other outcomes represent 34.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 65.4% · Draw: 18.8% · Away win: 15.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Airbus UK 1885; Trefelin 1685. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:30
Airbus UK
Elo 1885
3
-
0
Trefelin
Elo 1685
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+200
Elo rating comparison
Airbus UK1885
Trefelin1685
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Airbus UK
—Draws
—Trefelin
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
CORRECT
Home
65%
@ 1.43
Draw
19%
@ 4.60
Away
16%
@ 5.57
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.57
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
@ 1.09
No
3%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
@ 1.91
Draw
33%
@ 2.60
Away
11%
@ 5.20
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.22
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.12
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.44
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.