How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is GAP Connah S Quay FC, at 44.3%. The other outcomes represent 55.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.3% · Draw: 30.2% · Away win: 25.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: GAP Connah S Quay FC 1990; Penybont 1911. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:30
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Elo 1990
1
-
0
Penybont
Elo 1911
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+80
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
GAP Connah S Quay FC1990
Penybont1911
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1GAP Connah S Quay FC
0Draws
0Penybont
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
@ 1.97
Draw
30%
@ 3.38
Away
26%
@ 3.46
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.81
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.24
No
30%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.72
No
43%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
@ 2.61
Draw
47%
@ 2.11
Away
22%
@ 4.10
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
@ 1.40
No
40%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
@ 1.31
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.