How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cardiff Draconians, at 44.9%. The other outcomes represent 55.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.9% · Draw: 23.8% · Away win: 31.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cardiff Draconians 1483; Newport City 1482. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FAW Championship · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:30
Cardiff Draconians
Elo 1483
1
-
1
Newport City
Elo 1482
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+1
H2H (5)
0H
0D
5A
Elo rating comparison
Cardiff Draconians1483
Newport City1482
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Cardiff Draconians
0Draws
5Newport City
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
Draw
24%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
41%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.