How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Treowen Stars, at 54.3%. The other outcomes represent 45.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.3% · Draw: 22.1% · Away win: 23.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Treowen Stars 1508; Ynyshir Albions 1415. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FAW Championship · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:30
Treowen Stars
Elo 1508
1
-
2
Ynyshir Albions
Elo 1415
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+93
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Treowen Stars1508
Ynyshir Albions1415
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Treowen Stars
2Draws
0Ynyshir Albions
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
54%
Draw
22%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
Draw
36%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.