How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 49.8%. The other outcomes represent 50.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.3% · Draw: 18% · Away win: 49.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC St. Pauli 1866; Borussia Mönchengladbach 1979. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:30
FC St. Pauli
Elo 1866
1
-
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Elo 1979
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
-113
H2H (3)
1H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
FC St. Pauli1866
Borussia Mönchengladbach1979
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1FC St. Pauli
0Draws
2Borussia Mönchengladbach
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
Draw
18%
Away
50%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
38%
Away
34%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.