How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is KFUM II, at 44.0%. The other outcomes represent 56.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44% · Draw: 21.9% · Away win: 34.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: KFUM II 1409; Ullern 1406. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
3. Division - Girone 1 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
KFUM II
Elo 1409
1
-
3
Ullern
Elo 1406
FT
HT 0-3
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+3
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
KFUM II1409
Ullern1406
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2KFUM II
0Draws
0Ullern
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
22%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Half-Time Result
34% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
33%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.