How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is IF Karlstad, at 56.4%. The other outcomes represent 43.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 25.4% · Draw: 18.2% · Away win: 56.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Piteå 1626; IF Karlstad 1720. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ettan - Norra · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Piteå
Elo 1626
1
-
1
IF Karlstad
Elo 1720
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-94
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Piteå1626
IF Karlstad1720
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Piteå
0Draws
2IF Karlstad
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
@ 4.48
Draw
18%
@ 3.91
Away
56%
@ 1.63
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.69
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.14
No
26%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
@ 4.70
Draw
42%
@ 2.34
Away
35%
@ 2.18
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
@ 1.30
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.20
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.66
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.