How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bristol Rovers, at 41.5%. The other outcomes represent 58.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.3% · Draw: 29.3% · Away win: 41.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Crewe 1688; Bristol Rovers 1676. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
League Two · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Crewe
Elo 1688
3
-
1
Bristol Rovers
Elo 1676
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
+12
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Crewe1688
Bristol Rovers1676
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Crewe
0Draws
1Bristol Rovers
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
@ 2.88
Draw
29%
@ 3.39
Away
41%
@ 2.24
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.63
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.56
No
47%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.36
No
29%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
@ 3.43
Draw
40%
@ 2.19
Away
33%
@ 2.84
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.34
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
@ 1.23
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 1.78
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.