How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Carlisle, at 41.1%. The other outcomes represent 58.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.3% · Draw: 25.6% · Away win: 41.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aldershot Town 1640; Carlisle 1761. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
National League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Aldershot Town
Elo 1640
1
-
3
Carlisle
Elo 1761
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-121
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Aldershot Town1640
Carlisle1761
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Aldershot Town
0Draws
1Carlisle
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
@ 3.12
Draw
26%
@ 3.80
Away
41%
@ 1.99
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.45
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.73
No
47%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.32
No
30%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
23%
@ 3.55
Draw
43%
@ 2.43
Away
34%
@ 2.51
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.25
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.14
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.51
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.