How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Harrogate Town, at 70.5%. The other outcomes represent 29.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 70.5% · Draw: 16.7% · Away win: 12.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Harrogate Town 1652; AFC Hornchurch 1715. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
National League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Harrogate Town
Elo 1652
3
-
0
AFC Hornchurch
Elo 1715
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-62
Elo rating comparison
Harrogate Town1652
AFC Hornchurch1715
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Harrogate Town
—Draws
—AFC Hornchurch
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
CORRECT
Home
71%
@ 1.60
Draw
17%
@ 3.99
Away
13%
@ 4.75
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.68
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.15
No
15%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
53%
@ 2.13
Draw
31%
@ 2.36
Away
16%
@ 4.95
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.30
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.19
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.67
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.