How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Muri-Gümligen, at 39.9%. The other outcomes represent 60.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.9% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 36.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Muri-Gümligen 1546; Concordia Basel 1646. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Muri-Gümligen
Elo 1546
2
-
3
Concordia Basel
Elo 1646
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-100
Elo rating comparison
Muri-Gümligen1546
Concordia Basel1646
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Muri-Gümligen
—Draws
—Concordia Basel
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
Draw
24%
Away
37%
Both Teams to Score
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
34% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
Draw
34%
Away
34%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.