How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vitesse, at 42.4%. The other outcomes represent 57.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.4% · Draw: 20.4% · Away win: 37.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Vitesse 1580; NAC Breda 1625. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eerste Divisie · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
Vitesse
Elo 1580
2
-
2
NAC Breda
Elo 1625
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-45
Elo rating comparison
Vitesse1580
NAC Breda1625
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Vitesse
—Draws
—NAC Breda
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
@ 2.79
Draw
20%
@ 3.85
Away
37%
@ 2.17
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.40
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.63
No
47%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.39
No
39%
Half-Time Result
35% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
@ 3.21
Draw
33%
@ 2.46
Away
35%
@ 2.63
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.22
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
@ 1.11
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.42
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.