How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Barakaldo, at 58.0%. The other outcomes represent 42.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58% · Draw: 24.5% · Away win: 17.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Barakaldo 1723; Arenas Getxo 1620. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
Barakaldo
Elo 1723
1
-
1
Arenas Getxo
Elo 1620
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+103
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Barakaldo1723
Arenas Getxo1620
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Barakaldo
0Draws
2Arenas Getxo
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
WRONG
Home
58%
Draw
25%
Away
17%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
Draw
36%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.