How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tuggen, at 47.9%. The other outcomes represent 52.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 27.7% · Draw: 24.4% · Away win: 47.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mendrisio 1555; Tuggen 1705. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
Mendrisio
Elo 1555
1
-
1
Tuggen
Elo 1705
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-150
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Mendrisio1555
Tuggen1705
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Mendrisio
0Draws
0Tuggen
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
24%
Away
48%
Both Teams to Score
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
36%
Away
39%
HT Both Teams Score
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.