How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Platges Calvià, at 64.0%. The other outcomes represent 36.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 64% · Draw: 22.3% · Away win: 13.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Platges Calvià 1552; Migjorn 1312. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
Platges Calvià
Elo 1552
3
-
1
Migjorn
Elo 1312
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+240
Elo rating comparison
Platges Calvià1552
Migjorn1312
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Platges Calvià
—Draws
—Migjorn
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
64% conf.
CORRECT
Home
64%
Draw
22%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
46%
Draw
40%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.