How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Smorgon, at 62.1%. The other outcomes represent 37.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 62.1% · Draw: 17.9% · Away win: 20.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Smorgon 1633; Osipovichy 1400. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1. Division · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Smorgon
Elo 1633
2
-
0
Osipovichy
Elo 1400
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+233
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Smorgon1633
Osipovichy1400
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Smorgon
0Draws
0Osipovichy
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
CORRECT
Home
62%
Draw
18%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
Draw
35%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.