How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Noteć Czarnków, at 45.0%. The other outcomes represent 55.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45% · Draw: 26.4% · Away win: 28.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Noteć Czarnków 1562; Flota Świnoujście 1432. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 2 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
Noteć Czarnków
Elo 1562
3
-
0
Flota Świnoujście
Elo 1432
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+130
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Noteć Czarnków1562
Flota Świnoujście1432
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Noteć Czarnków
0Draws
0Flota Świnoujście
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
26%
Away
29%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
41%
Draw
36%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.