How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rodina Moskva II, at 59.9%. The other outcomes represent 40.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.9% · Draw: 23.3% · Away win: 16.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rodina Moskva II 1644; Kaluga 1548. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Second League A - Division A Gold · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 14:00
Rodina Moskva II
Elo 1644
vs
Kaluga
Elo 1548
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+96
H2H (6)
0H
4D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Rodina Moskva II1644
Kaluga1548
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Rodina Moskva II
4Draws
2Kaluga
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
Home
60%
Draw
23%
Away
17%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
44%
Draw
40%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.