How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Åland United W, at 61.3%. The other outcomes represent 38.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 61.3% · Draw: 15.1% · Away win: 23.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Åland United W 1751; IF Gnistan 1458. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Kansallinen Liiga · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 15:00
Åland United W
Elo 1751
3
-
1
IF Gnistan
Elo 1458
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+293
H2H (6)
6H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Åland United W1751
IF Gnistan1458
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
6Åland United W
0Draws
0IF Gnistan
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
61%
Draw
15%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
Draw
30%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 1.5 Goals
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.