How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Badalona, at 37.9%. The other outcomes represent 62.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.9% · Draw: 26.2% · Away win: 37.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tona 1492; Badalona 1569. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
Tona
Elo 1492
1
-
3
Badalona
Elo 1569
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-77
H2H (3)
0H
3D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Tona1492
Badalona1569
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Tona
3Draws
0Badalona
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
Draw
26%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
26%
Draw
44%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.