How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Great Olympics, at 44.3%. The other outcomes represent 55.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.3% · Draw: 25.8% · Away win: 29.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Great Olympics 1515; True Democracy 1507. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Division One League · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:00
Great Olympics
Elo 1515
1
-
2
True Democracy
Elo 1507
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
4D
1L
Elo Advantage
+7
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Great Olympics1515
True Democracy1507
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Great Olympics
0Draws
0True Democracy
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
26%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
47%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 3.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.