How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Jaraaf, at 52.3%. The other outcomes represent 47.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 52.3% · Draw: 30.5% · Away win: 17.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Jaraaf 1622; AJEL 1582. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 17:00
Jaraaf
Elo 1622
vs
AJEL
Elo 1582
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+40
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Jaraaf1622
AJEL1582
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Jaraaf
0Draws
2AJEL
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
52% conf.
Home
52%
Draw
30%
Away
17%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
50%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
HT Over 1.5
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Over 1.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.