How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Belarus, at 70.0%. The other outcomes represent 30.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 70% · Draw: 17.8% · Away win: 12.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Belarus 1454; San Marino 979. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 16:00
Belarus
Elo 1454
4
-
0
San Marino
Elo 979
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+474
Elo rating comparison
Belarus1454
San Marino979
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Belarus
—Draws
—San Marino
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
70% conf.
CORRECT
Home
70%
@ 1.14
Draw
18%
@ 8.40
Away
12%
@ 26.00
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
@ 1.01
No
7%
Double Chance X2
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Half-Time Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
55%
@ 1.40
Draw
35%
@ 3.10
Away
10%
@ 15.50
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
79%
@ 1.23
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.14
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.57
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.