How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Iceland, at 60.7%. The other outcomes represent 39.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.7% · Draw: 26.3% · Away win: 12.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Iceland 1521; Bulgaria 1413. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 16:00
Iceland
Elo 1521
3
-
0
Bulgaria
Elo 1413
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+108
Elo rating comparison
Iceland1521
Bulgaria1413
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Iceland
—Draws
—Bulgaria
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
61%
Draw
26%
Away
13%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
41%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.