How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Loznica, at 45.2%. The other outcomes represent 54.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.9% · Draw: 27.9% · Away win: 45.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Napredak 1543; Loznica 1715. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Prva Liga · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 14:00
Napredak
Elo 1543
3
-
0
Loznica
Elo 1715
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-173
Elo rating comparison
Napredak1543
Loznica1715
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Napredak
—Draws
—Loznica
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
Draw
28%
Away
45%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
39%
Away
39%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.