How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Athletic Club W, at 45.5%. The other outcomes represent 54.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 30% · Draw: 24.5% · Away win: 45.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Madrid CFF W 1550; Athletic Club W 1660. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División Femenina · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 16:00
Madrid CFF W
Elo 1550
2
-
2
Athletic Club W
Elo 1660
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-110
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Madrid CFF W1550
Athletic Club W1660
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Madrid CFF W
0Draws
2Athletic Club W
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
25%
Away
45%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
38%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.