How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Toulon, at 43.0%. The other outcomes represent 57.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43% · Draw: 32.6% · Away win: 24.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Toulon 1657; Troyes II 1661. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
National 2 - Group C · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 16:00
Toulon
Elo 1657
1
-
0
Troyes II
Elo 1661
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-4
Elo rating comparison
Toulon1657
Troyes II1661
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Toulon
—Draws
—Troyes II
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
33%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
Draw
38%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.