How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is San Bartolomé, at 45.7%. The other outcomes represent 54.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.7% · Draw: 26.4% · Away win: 27.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: San Bartolomé 1492; Villa Santa Brígida 1521. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 16:00
San Bartolomé
Elo 1492
1
-
1
Villa Santa Brígida
Elo 1521
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-30
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
San Bartolomé1492
Villa Santa Brígida1521
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4San Bartolomé
0Draws
0Villa Santa Brígida
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
Draw
26%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
47%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.