How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Avance Ezcabarte, at 69.2%. The other outcomes represent 30.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 69.2% · Draw: 19.5% · Away win: 11.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Avance Ezcabarte 1494; Cantolagua 1322. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
Avance Ezcabarte
Elo 1494
4
-
1
Cantolagua
Elo 1322
FT
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+171
Elo rating comparison
Avance Ezcabarte1494
Cantolagua1322
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Avance Ezcabarte
—Draws
—Cantolagua
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
69% conf.
CORRECT
Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
11%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
Home
51%
Draw
36%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.