How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is SC Genemuiden, at 47.9%. The other outcomes represent 52.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.2% · Draw: 22.9% · Away win: 47.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Hoogeveen 1497; SC Genemuiden 1639. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Derde Divisie · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 16:00
Hoogeveen
Elo 1497
5
-
3
SC Genemuiden
Elo 1639
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-142
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Hoogeveen1497
SC Genemuiden1639
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Hoogeveen
0Draws
0SC Genemuiden
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
23%
Away
48%
Both Teams to Score
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
Draw
35%
Away
39%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.