How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Dongen, at 42.5%. The other outcomes represent 57.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.5% · Draw: 21.2% · Away win: 36.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Dongen 1392; Poortugaal 1441. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Derde Divisie · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 17:30
Dongen
Elo 1392
4
-
0
Poortugaal
Elo 1441
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
-50
Elo rating comparison
Dongen1392
Poortugaal1441
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Dongen
—Draws
—Poortugaal
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
42%
Draw
21%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
36%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
91%
No
9%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.