How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Leones Negros UDG, at 60.3%. The other outcomes represent 39.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.3% · Draw: 22.5% · Away win: 17.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Leones Negros UDG 1562; Dorados 1425. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 6–3. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:00
Leones Negros UDG
Elo 1562
6
-
3
Dorados
Elo 1425
FT
HT 3-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+136
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Leones Negros UDG1562
Dorados1425
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Leones Negros UDG
2Draws
0Dorados
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
CORRECT
Home
60%
@ 1.67
Draw
22%
@ 4.00
Away
17%
@ 4.35
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.57
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.16
No
25%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
@ 2.18
Draw
39%
@ 2.40
Away
16%
@ 4.48
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.27
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.17
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.59
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.