How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Duque de Caxias, at 42.9%. The other outcomes represent 57.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.5% · Draw: 22.6% · Away win: 42.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Goytacaz 1492; Duque de Caxias 1524. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca - 2 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Goytacaz
Elo 1492
2
-
1
Duque de Caxias
Elo 1524
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-33
Elo rating comparison
Goytacaz1492
Duque de Caxias1524
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Goytacaz
—Draws
—Duque de Caxias
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
23%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
Draw
41%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.