How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Le Puy Foot, at 47.8%. The other outcomes represent 52.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.8% · Draw: 30.5% · Away win: 21.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Le Puy Foot 1758; Thionville Lusitanos 1707. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 3 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:45
Le Puy Foot
Elo 1758
1
-
0
Thionville Lusitanos
Elo 1707
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+51
Elo rating comparison
Le Puy Foot1758
Thionville Lusitanos1707
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Le Puy Foot
—Draws
—Thionville Lusitanos
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
@ 1.92
Draw
30%
@ 3.43
Away
22%
@ 3.43
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.68
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.24
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 1.77
No
48%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
@ 2.49
Draw
41%
@ 2.20
Away
21%
@ 3.94
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
@ 1.34
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.24
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 1.79
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.