How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fortaleza EC, at 53.5%. The other outcomes represent 46.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53.5% · Draw: 28.6% · Away win: 17.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fortaleza EC 1861; Nautico Recife 1760. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie B · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 00:35
Fortaleza EC
Elo 1861
1
-
1
Nautico Recife
Elo 1760
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+101
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Fortaleza EC1861
Nautico Recife1760
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Fortaleza EC
0Draws
0Nautico Recife
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
54%
@ 1.77
Draw
29%
@ 3.50
Away
18%
@ 4.54
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.18
No
15%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
@ 2.38
Draw
52%
@ 2.12
Away
14%
@ 5.01
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.42
No
39%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.34
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.