How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Águilas Doradas, at 55.8%. The other outcomes represent 44.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55.8% · Draw: 23.5% · Away win: 20.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Águilas Doradas 1590; Jaguares 1505. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 19:00
Águilas Doradas
Elo 1590
2
-
0
Jaguares
Elo 1505
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+86
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Águilas Doradas1590
Jaguares1505
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Águilas Doradas
4Draws
0Jaguares
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
@ 1.55
Draw
24%
@ 3.95
Away
21%
@ 5.71
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.12
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
@ 2.10
Draw
41%
@ 2.24
Away
12%
@ 5.80
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
@ 1.37
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.27
No
35%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.