How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Acassuso, at 48.5%. The other outcomes represent 51.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.5% · Draw: 26.1% · Away win: 25.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Acassuso 1479; Ciudad de Bolívar 1592. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Acassuso
Elo 1479
0
-
1
Ciudad de Bolívar
Elo 1592
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-114
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Acassuso1479
Ciudad de Bolívar1592
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Acassuso
0Draws
2Ciudad de Bolívar
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
@ 2.27
Draw
26%
@ 2.84
Away
25%
@ 3.42
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.27
No
25%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.55
No
41%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
@ 3.14
Draw
48%
@ 1.84
Away
24%
@ 4.33
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.63
No
39%
HT Over 1.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Over 1.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.60
No
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.