How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chacarita Juniors, at 43.2%. The other outcomes represent 56.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.2% · Draw: 27.2% · Away win: 29.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chacarita Juniors 1535; Patronato 1564. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:30
Chacarita Juniors
Elo 1535
vs
Patronato
Elo 1564
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-30
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Chacarita Juniors1535
Patronato1564
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Chacarita Juniors
0Draws
2Patronato
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
Home
43%
Draw
27%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
Home
30%
Draw
50%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Over 1.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.