How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Colon Santa Fe, at 47.5%. The other outcomes represent 52.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.5% · Draw: 26.8% · Away win: 25.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Colon Santa Fe 1601; CA Estudiantes 1632. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Colon Santa Fe
Elo 1601
1
-
0
CA Estudiantes
Elo 1632
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-31
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Colon Santa Fe1601
CA Estudiantes1632
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Colon Santa Fe
2Draws
0CA Estudiantes
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
@ 2.00
Draw
27%
@ 2.96
Away
26%
@ 4.04
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Away Clean Sheet
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.20
No
25%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.72
No
47%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 2.81
Draw
53%
@ 1.84
Away
17%
@ 5.05
HT Both Teams Score
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
HT Over 0.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.63
No
47%
HT Over 1.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Over 1.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.65
No
43%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 3.5 Goals
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
0%
No
100%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.